What highest-ever voting in West Bengal election Phase-1 reveals
According to Chief Election Commissioner of India Gyanesh Kumar, West Bengal recorded its ever percentage of polling since independence. (Image: File)
West Bengal Assembly polls have always seen high voter turnout. But voting for the first phase of the Assembly election on Thursday was the highest since 1947, with a turnout of over 91%. What does this high voter turnout reveal?
In the 2021 Assembly election, which was conducted amid the Covid-19 pandemic and a fiercely polarised battle between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP, turnout was recorded at 82.30%.
Despite health concerns and multiphase polling, over 59.9 million votes were cast out of 73.4 million registered electors. TMC retained power with 213 seats in the 294-member Assembly.
With 91.35% of the 3.6 crore registered voters voting till 7 pm on Thursday, this means more people have voted in Bengal in this election than in 2021. This is also the highest turnout ever recorded in the state since independence. Gyanesh Kumar, Chief Election Commissioner of India, was quoted as saying, "Highest ever percentage of polling in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu since Independence – ECI salutes each voter of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu."
Here the most important thing to be taken into account will be the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. The exercise was mired in controversy and deleted nearly 91 lakh names from the state's electoral rolls.
The SIR exercise combined earlier deletions of around 63 lakh names with an additional 27 lakh voters declared ineligible after judicial adjudication.
Several districts, including Murshidabad, North 24 Parganas, Malda, Nadia and South 24 Parganas, recorded some of the highest deletions.
In Kolkata, nearly 7 lakh voters were removed across multiple constituencies, leading to a significant drop in the voter base in both northern and southern segments of the city.
The SIR has cut Bengal's electorate from 7.6 crore to 6.8 crore, bringing down the voter base. The high turnout needs to be read against this.
"West Bengal voter turnout has already crossed 90%. Possible political undertones aside, it is better and safer to see it as a result of SIR deletions," wrote Roshan Kishore, data and political economy editor at the Hindustan Times.
In the first phase, voting was held in 152 of the 294 Assembly constituencies of West Bengal. Most voting was recorded in South Dinajpur (94.37%) and Cooch Behar (93.73%) till 7 PM, according to reports.
Voter turnout in Assembly elections in Bengal has consistently ranked among the highest in India. Factors contributing to sustained high turnout include strong party cadres, demography, community dynamics, and women's increasing participation (matching or exceeding male turnout) in recent polls.
Obviously, both the ruling TMC and the primary opposition BJP would love to claim the high voter turnout indicating a victory for them. "High turnout in West Bengal Election seen by both TMC and BJP as favouring them," wrote KC Singh, former diplomat and strategic affairs expert, on X.
"In this first phase of the elections, people have dealt a severe blow to the BJP and given their full support to the TMC, Mamata Banerjee's government. Of the 152 seats contested, it is estimated that the TMC will win at least 125," said TMC leader Kunal Ghosh, citing the over 90% voter turnout.
However, there is no empirical evidence to suggest that higher turnout favours the incumbent of the challenger.
"Record voter turnout in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Conventional wisdom: higher voter turnout out=anti incumbency. But in last decade, turnouts across many states have generally been higher and incumbents can also gain. Net net: wait till results day May 4," wrote Rajdeep Sardesai, consulting editor India Today TV, posted on X.
But there are other reasons behind the higher turnout in West Bengal other than the SIR exercise.
Voters residing outside West Bengal for work travelled back to the state because they feared being dropped from the voter list and even losing their citizenship. That fear was drummed up by TMC chief and Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.
"The EC, BJP and the Centre are not following the Constitution. They are trying to snatch away voting rights," Banerjee said at a rally in Maynaguri of Jalpaiguri district in March, referring to the SIR exercise and the deletion of voters.
"Today, they are snatching away voting rights; tomorrow, they will snatch away citizenship by bringing the NRC," she added.
Cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and industrial hubs like Surat and Khurja have seen droves of people returning to Bengal for the election. India Today Digital has documented the rush to West Bengal for voting. Obviously, those who travelled so far, will definitely vote.
The higher voter turnout also hints at voter consolidation and people being able to vote due to the large deployment of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel. There were 2.4 lakh CAPF personnel on the ground this time.
So, the higher voter turnout reveals active participation and an impact of the SIR exercise. It shows how the fear of losing voting rights on one hand, and a secure environment for voting on the other played their parts. What it will not reveal is which side has an advantage and will ultimately emerge victorious.
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