West Bengal exit polls: A look at how 2016, 2021 predictions compared with actual results – CNBC TV18
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has banned exit polls during the second phase of voting, which starts from 7 am tomorrow and will continue till 6:30 pm.Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections will be released after the final phase of voting on April 29, with counting set for May 4.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has banned exit polls during the second phase of voting, which starts from 7 am tomorrow and will continue until 6:30 pm.
No TV channel, website, or social media platform can show or publish exit poll results during this time. Exit polls can only be released after the conclusion of voting.
As the state votes in a high-stakes contest, a look back at the last two major elections.
2021 West Bengal Assembly Election
Most exit polls said it would be a close contest between the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Most projections indicated that the TMC would emerge as the largest party.
The 'poll of polls' estimated that the TMC could win around 156 seats of the 292 seats that went to vote. At the same time, it predicted that the BJP would put up a strong fight and secure around 121 seats.
It also projected that the Left Front alliance, which includes the CPI(M), Congress, and other smaller parties, would get only 14 to 25 seats.
In 2021, the results were quite different from what exit polls had predicted. The TMC registered a landslide victory with 215 seats, which was higher than most exit poll estimates.
The BJP, which was projected to perform strongly, managed to win only 77 seats, much lower than predicted. The Left Front and Congress alliance performed poorly, winning just one seat, while the 'others' category also secured one seat.
2016 West Bengal Assembly election
The 'poll of polls'" estimated that the TMC would win around 184 of the 294 seats. It also suggested that the Left-Congress alliance could win about 103 seats, while the BJP would get only around 5 seats.
Most exit polls suggested that TMC would secure a clear majority, estimating around 160 or more. Some individual surveys were even more favourable to the TMC, predicting around 163 seats for TMC, 126 seats for the Left-Congress combine, and just 1 seat for the BJP.
However, the final result turned out stronger than expected for the TMC, which went on to win 211 seats. The BJP managed to win only three seats while Congress won 44 seats, CPI-M won 26, and smaller parties like RSP, GJM, CPI, and Independents took 1 to 3 seats each.
The West Bengal Assembly election 2026 is being held in two phases. Voting for the first phase took place on April 23, and the second phase is scheduled for April 29. The results will be declared on May 4.
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