What an election, sir-ji!
It's who dares wins in Bengal, as Mamata Banerjee and Narendra Modi slug it out in a cliffhanger election#Kolkata
April is the cruellest month in Bengal this year. The peak of summer is still a few weeks away, but a red-hot assembly election – with its full-throated sloganeering and mud-slinging, the Kashmir-like presence of central forces, and a contentious SIR rollout – has perforce turned the eyes of the entire country towards the state.
On the streets of Kolkata, Abhishek Sharma's batting average in this IPL is probably generating less chatter than the astonishing 92.6 per cent turnout in Bengal's first phase of voting on Thursday – a record in the state's election history. So, was it a vote for change or for continuity? With another 142 seats in the 294-member state assembly set to cast ballots in the final phase next Wednesday, political pundits say that it's too early to call it – picture abhi baaki hai.
"The scale of what has unfolded in the first phase is unprecedented. In at least 10 constituencies, there was around 96 per cent turnout. There is zero doubt that the electorate is disillusioned with the Trinamool Congress government, but it would be wrong to jump the gun and call this an anti-incumbency wave. The messy rollout of SIR in Bengal has turned the election into a citizenship test in the minds of voters," says Mathew Vilayasseril, a veteran election researcher who grew up in Kolkata.
It's all in the rhyme, silly
Even as the world watches, the two leaders at the centre of the election drama are dealing in rhyming couplets. Swathed in saffron, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the soul and substance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) communication across billboards and newspaper ads – "Paltano dorkar, chai BJP sorkar (vote for change and get the BJP to power)".
Across the political divide, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, raising a defiant finger, is the marquee draw on the Trinamool posters – "Je lorchhe shobar daake, shei jetaabe Bangla maa ke (she who's fighting for everyone will ensure that Bengal wins)".
The three-time CM's flaunting of her streetfighter credo is a smart and calculated move, feels Vilayasseril. "She has repurposed the classical anti-Delhi playbook of the Left Front government during its 34-year rule in Bengal – that the Centre is depriving the state of its rightful share of wealth. So anyone who comes from Delhi – in this case, Modi – is not to be trusted," he says. It's a narrative that has deep roots in the Bengali psyche, going back to the time of Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose's split from the Congress, Vilayasseril points out.
The BJP campaign is two-pronged – drive a wedge in the Trinamool vote bank by focusing on scams and so-called appeasement politics, and offer an alternative with development as the front and centre. "Job scams, ministers in jail, syndicate raj – people are fed up with the corruption of the Trinamool government. I get the sense that the electorate is yearning for a change. If not now, then when: that's the feeling," says retired journalist from The Statesman, Manojit Mitra, who remembers the cycles of violence that have marred Bengal elections for decades. "This time, thanks to the huge presence of central forces, the violence is minimal. And that's a very good sign," he adds.
BJP MLA Agnimitra Paul, who is seeking re-election from the Asansol South constituency, feels that Mamata has lost her aura. "Before she became CM, she inspired me as a leader, as she fought to get the Left Front out of Bengal. But 15 years in government has shown that there are two Mamatas – the real one and the mask she wears. In 2026, Trinamool has paid money, fear-mongered, and made tall promises. But none of this will work. There's a BJP wave coming," she predicts.
The vexed SIR question
The eye-popping turnout in the first phase would have normally been read as an anti-incumbency tsunami that would drown Mamata, but there's an elephant in Bengal's room that everyone is talking about, a factor which threatens to swamp every other consideration for the electorate – the express-speed Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls that took six months to conduct and might take years to straighten out. In Kolkata and across the state, at chai ki tapris and on local trains, the refrain has been – ebar ki hobe (what next)?
"No other state has had to tackle the category of 'logical discrepancy' in the SIR process like Bengal. A total of around 27 lakh voter names have been deleted under this category," says Prasenjit Bose, chairperson of the SIR Committee of the Congress's Bengal unit. The Election Commission of India created this segment for Bengal, where AI was used to flag voters who threw up a mismatch in parents' names, an age difference of less than 15 years with parents, and more such parameters. Crucially, the process excluded those whose documents showed spelling anomalies in their own names – Mukherjee and Mukhopadhyay, Mohammed and Muhammad – which is not rare in Bengal.
"These exclusions, together with the BJP's rhetoric of 'detect, delete, deport' and its constant reference to infiltrators, are a form of surrogate messaging – Muslims' space in Bengal will be curtailed if the party comes to power. In a state of roughly 10 crore people, where around 3 crore are Muslims, that's a dangerous game to play," Bose adds.
Abhijit Gupta, professor of English at Jadavpur University, is more blunt in his assessment of the SIR exercise. "There's clearly a disenfranchisement of the electorate that is happening. It's a travesty of what an election should be like," he says. The enormous deployment of central forces – 2.4 lakh boots on the ground for the first phase – has created the impression that the state will use all the heavy and light machinery at its disposal in Bengal, Gupta adds.
Which way, Bengal?
As the bhodrolok debates the BJP's go-for-broke campaign over cups of Darjeeling tea, one thing is clear: this will be an election to remember. "BJP's single-minded focus is on the consolidation of Hindu votes, something that Mamata has been undercutting. She has played the Bengali sub-nationalism card to her advantage – that non-Bengalis will never understand the food habits, social customs and linguistic identity of Bengalis. Hence, the BJP is the real bohiragoto – the outsider," says Vilayasseril.
In urban pockets, the anger with Mamata's shambolic governance style is palpable. "The CM jumped up to defend Jadavpur University when Modi called it a place of anarchy at an election on Friday. Why then does JU face neglect year-round? The university doesn't have funds to even replace tubelights. The state's education policy is in tatters. School dropouts have increased, the teacher-student ratio has plummeted, and libraries across the state don't have funds to buy books. I'm not a fan of the centre's style of doing things, but this government has a habit of not listening to those who are not part of the Trinamool fold – and that has to change," says Professor Gupta.
This lack of a coherent policy is hurting Bengal badly, feels filmmaker Indranil Roychowdhury. "Ironically, Mamata's biggest success has been her handling of direct benefit transfers to the people, or doles. Everything else about the governance is ad-hoc," he adds. In the 15 years of Trinamool rule, the Bengali film industry has gone into steady decline with nothing from the government to shore it up, the filmmaker feels.
The big question is: will this discontent flip Mamata's fortunes? "Yes, disillusionment is there, but for regime change, you need more than that. You need rage. We saw that rage in 2011, when the Left was wiped out after seven terms. I frankly don't see it this time," says Vilayasseril.
Paul, BJP's sitting Asansol South MLA, doesn't agree. "Only those who have benefited from Mamata's corrupt rule want to stay with her. BJP will come to power, and no one can remove them for the next three decades," she predicts.
In nearly five decades of state elections, Bengal has never thrown up a close verdict. The Left swept the Congress out in 1977 (scorecard: 231 out of 294 seats in the Assembly), when Mamata trounced them in 2011, she won 227. One thing is sure: Bengal won't forget the summer of 2026 for a long time to come.
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