US-Iran stand-off – beyond the rhetoric
The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@hotmail.com and tweets @20_Inam
The second round of peace talks between Iran and the US slated initially for April 16, 2026, in Islamabad, are postponed hours away from expiration of the two-week ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump on April 7. However, President Trump extended the ceasefire on April 21, at the urging of PM Sharif and Gen Asim, until Iran submits a 'unified proposal' concluding the discussions. Iranian delegation 'ostensibly' refused Islamabad Peace Talks 2.0 planned for Wednesday April 22.
As per factual situation, despite the extension of truce, American Forces continue with the naval blockade of Iranian ports; hence, Tehran refuses to negotiate under the 'shadow of threats' and while the naval blockade persisted. VP JD Vance's planned trip to Islamabad remains on hold. The key sticking points include: a) Iran's nuclear programme, wherein the US is demanding removal of Iranian nuclear stockpile and an end to 60% uranium enrichment; b) Strait of Hormuz (SoH). The US demands reopening of the waterway to global energy trade without Iran's conditionalities, while Iran insists ending the naval blockade first; and c) Lebanon conflict and disagreement over ceasefire extension to the war in Lebanon. The US-Israel alliance maintains the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, whereas Iran and Pakistan contend Lebanon was part of the initial understanding. Other items on the agenda are permanent peace, proxies, reparations to Iran, besides sanctions relief, etc.
Recent events have created a deadlock. Iran first. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastline, imposed on April 13 as 'kinetic expansion' of the biting economic sanctions, deprives Tehran of the oil revenue and critical imports including food, fertilisers, raw materials, etc. The CENTCOM-enforced blockade has diverted over 25 commercial vessels after interception as of April 20. The USS Spruance intercepted and disabled M/V Touska, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, on April 19. Contrary to some reports, the US blockade is not covering the entire Strait, as it would be unlawful to impede neutral traffic from Oman and the UAE. American ships are deployed in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea.
Iran justifiably considers naval blockade a violation of the ceasefire and has called it an 'act of piracy', and has in response, closed SoH to most hostile traffic. Trust deficit and Iran's accusation of the US going back on commitments are cited as the main reasons for Tehran's recalcitrance and non-participation in Islamabad Talks 2.0. However, it is important for both parties to realise that talks are the only way to move forward. Both sides have no other good enough options.
America needs to know that Iran's indomitable will could not be broken by their incessant bombing. Iran may be militarily down but not out. The regime and IRGC enjoy discernable advantage in the 'intangible force-multipliers' of the National Power Potential (NPP), like justness-of-cause, will-to-fight, morale and motivation, etc. That enforcement of blockade and interception of Iranian missile and drone swarms are drawn-out, expensive and psychologically degrading for its Arab allies, especially its protégé Israel, protecting whom initiated the conflict in the first place. That the conflict will not end anytime soon and has already cost US Republicans dearly. That the specter of war continuing without a clear outcome would cast a shadow for Trump Administration in the November mid-term elections, as America – even Trump's MAGA base – is against costly overseas wars. It is an unpopular war that has divided if not ruptured the Trans-Atlantic alliance like never before. President Trump cannot continue with talks and say acrimonious things on social media, driving the Iranian mediators away. Iran by blocking SoH and extending the war to Arab Middle East continues to play havoc with world energy supply chain, however, desperate this might appear to be.
Iran should realise that by holding on to the US-Israeli onslaught for as long as it did, it has re-written its history adding laurels. In the eyes of world citizenry, it is a clear winner, having militarily denied the attainment of war objectives (regime change, de-nuclearisation/de-missilefication, military surrender, etc) to a much stronger side. The regime despite massive fatalities has remained steady and unruffled, even if bruised. Iranian people have flocked to the once unpopular clergy leadership, just as people do in crises. IRGC/Pasdaran, as ideological military machine, has proved its mettle. And lastly, Iran's geography has won over Coalition's military superiority.
However, beyond this point, persisting in hostilities will be counterproductive. The collective NPP of Coalition far exceeds Iran's battered NPP. Naval blockade will further sap Tehran's military industrial capacity. And in the mid to long-term, the law of diminishing returns will play out to Iran's clear disadvantage. Continuous interference with the oil and gas traffic through SoH will enhance the already worrying energy hardship in Asia and beyond, especially in Europe and the Global South. Plus, bombing the Arab neighbours will vitiate the global public opinion against Iran, in the not-too-distant future. This will cause the world and the UN to gravitate towards an Afghanistan-style Resolution(s) against Iran, seen then as a bad actor.
Naval blockade, the specter of ground incursions selectively along Hormuz coastline, capturing the Kharq export terminal, and bombing Iran's military, economic and industrial targets will push Iran to untold misery and hardships, for no fault of most of Iran's peace-loving citizenry. Its government needs to know when to stop strategic over-reach, bombast and bluster. The consequences of persisting in error are grave and costly.
Talks, therefore, are the only option for both sides, especially for Iran. The process must be continued to discuss the sticking point and agree to disagree. Nations do not shun diplomacy and dialogue in favour of anger and angst. You need to walk the talk and sometimes fight and talk. Modern state cannot just sulk and brood.
And lastly, the Indo/Afghan-sponsored detractors of Pakistan's peace efforts. Although RSS leadership acutely suffers from the 'sour grape syndrome', Pakistan's civil and military leadership, nonetheless, is doing poor Indians, forming miles-long lines at gas stations, a favour by easing their situation. This warrants gingerly Indian support, as heartfelt gratitude does not come easy to Modi's India.
Key Insights
- This topic is currently trending
- Experts are closely monitoring developments
- It may impact future decisions
