The situation within the next three, four weeks can become systemic, so you can have severe cuts of flights in Europe already starting in May and June.
Europe’s aviation industry faces mounting pressure as jet fuel shortages intensify, with analysts warning of systemic disruptions that could lead to severe flight cancellations starting in May and June 2026.
The situation has been exacerbated by a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. Began restricting ships entering or exiting Iranian ports following collapsed peace negotiations with Iran. Traffic through this strategically vital waterway has ground to a halt after Iran closed it during heightened tensions with the U.S. And Israel, disrupting a key supply route for jet fuel from the Gulf region.
The situation within the next three, four weeks can become systemic, so you can have severe cuts of flights in Europe already starting in May and June.
There are many warnings of looming shortages in the weeks ahead, if there’s no supply coming again. We’ve seen these vessels now stopping, so supplies from the Middle East have run out, and we need replacements.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel remaining, with stocks expected to reach a tipping point in June if at least half of Middle Eastern imports cannot be replaced. Historically, Europe has relied on the Middle East for approximately 75% of its jet fuel imports, making the region particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Refineries in major exporting countries such as Korea, India, and China are also affected, as they remain highly dependent on crude oil imports from the Middle East. The IEA noted that the crisis has disrupted the inner workings of global aviation fuel markets, throwing “a proverbial wrench” into supply chains that support air travel worldwide.
In response, the UK government confirmed it is collaborating with fuel suppliers and airlines to maintain supply chain stability, emphasizing efforts to ensure people and businesses can continue operating. Airlines UK, representing British carriers, stated that while no disruptions to UK jet fuel supply have been observed yet, the industry is engaged in discussions with authorities about crucial contingency measures, including potential regulatory adjustments to protect consumers and maintain competitiveness.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has echoed these concerns, indicating that flight cancellations in Europe could begin as early as the end of May due to insufficient jet fuel availability. Industry leaders warn that without rapid resolution of supply constraints or successful diversification of sourcing, summer travel plans across the continent face significant disruption.
